At a guess?
I’d say that pretty much 99.99% of all online roulette systems are scams.
- Martingale systems don’t work long-term because they have no true advantage over the odds.
- There’s no such thing as a biased online roulette wheel or an algorithm that can predict where the ball will land.
- And you certainly can’t beat the online roulette software by exploiting ‘flaws’ in the RNGs (‘random number generator’).
Online Roulette Affiliate Scams
Any website that says otherwise is probably trying to get you to join a casino via their revenue share affiliate links so that they can profit from your losses.
You Can’t Beat the Casinos With Your Own Cash Exclusively
The bottom line is that if you’re betting with your own money.
You’ll eventually succumb to the casino’s mathematical advantage over the odds (the ‘house edge’).
Regardless of the staking strategy or system that you’re using.
There’s a legitimate way that you can consistently win at online roulette without cheating or doing anything illegal.
I know this for a fact because I’ve been using it myself for years.
Here’s how the system works.
How to Win at Online Roulette Long-Term in 7 Steps
The secret to ‘winning’ at roulette is to use the online casinos’ bonuses against them.
This is often called ‘bonus whoring’.
And it’s far from a new technique.
This strategy is now so widely known that most of the online casinos have altered their terms and conditions to prevent savvy players from cashing in.
And most of the veteran ‘bonus hunters’ from sites like ‘Beating Bonuses’ and the old version of ‘The Gambling Times’ forum have since moved on.
However, I’m personally still able to make money from both online roulette bonuses and other casino bonuses using some very advanced strategies.
For example, in the last few months, I’ve banked just over £4,000 in pure profit by playing through 1,176 mathematically profitable casino bonuses:
You’ll Need to Use Slot Machines Too
Now, it’s important to understand one thing.
Most of those casino bonuses were turned over on slot machines.
Because the casinos tend to exclude or reduce the wagering contributions that low house edge games like roulette and blackjack have when playing with a casino bonus.
However, there are ways around this.
As I’ll now demonstrate.
Important Points and Disclaimer
Whilst this online roulette strategy is mathematically sound – it doesn’t guarantee profits. On the contrary, this strategy is considered to be extremely high-risk. The profit is purely ‘theoretical’ and is based on branches of mathematics that pertain to Probability Theory. I’m sharing this strategy because it has worked well for me personally over the years. But I make no guarantees that you’ll experience the same results. No part of this post (or website) should be interpreted as financial advice – the information is for entertainment purposes only. You should only ever bet with money that you can afford to lose. Recreational gambling can destroy lives. BeGambleAware.
1: Understand Expected Value (EV)
Expected value (‘EV’) tells you the true ‘worth’ of a bet.
For example, European Roulette has a house edge of 2.7%.
This means that for every £100 that you turn over on that game you’ll lose £2.70 on average.
Therefore, each bet that you place has a ‘negative expected value‘ (-EV).
Because you are losing money to the casino’s house edge.
Video credit: Know Your Odds
How to Make a Bet +EV
By playing through a casino bonus in a certain way.
It’s sometimes possible to make each bet +EV.
+EV bets are the fulcrum of this winning online roulette strategy.
Because each +EV bet that you place is profitable for YOU the player and not the casino.
For example, if a casino bonus has an ‘EV’ of £5.
You would EXPECT to end up with a £5 profit after you’ve completed the waging requirements.
However, due to something called the ‘variance’.
You could end up with a bigger or smaller profit – or even a loss.
EV = The True Value of the Bet
Another way to think about the EV of an independent event is by adding up all of the values on a die.
And dividing by six to work out the average value that you’d get over an infinite number of rolls.
In such a case, the EV is 3.5 because:
(1 + 2 + 3 + 4 +5 + 6) / 6 = 3.5
2: Understand the Variance
-EV bets are bad bets because they will lose you money over time.
+EV bets are good bets because they will make you money over time.
However, +EV bets WON’T win every time.
This ‘deviation’ from the true expected value of the bonus is called the ‘variance’.
Basically, the variance is the ‘luck’ factor.
And it’s what makes it difficult for most folks to distinguish a good bet from a bad one.
Just like in this video:
Video credit: Veritasium
3: Understand the Importance of Bet Volume
The key to making money with +EV bets is a combination of effective risk management and bet volume.
I’ll talk about risk in a moment.
But the key to ‘getting over’ the luck factor and ‘actualising’ the true cumulative profit that you are ‘owed’ is by simply placing a large volume of +EV bets.
Because with each +EV bet that you place, the likelihood of the true EV of the bet being realised increases due to the mathematical phenomenon called ‘mean regression’.
Regression to the mean basically means that the more times you do something that has a variable outcome – the closer the results will get to the average as the number of ‘trials’ increases.
Here’s a great conceptual explanation of regression to the mean:
Video credit: Veritasium
How Does Mean Regression Help You Make Money?
The effects of EV are cumulative.
Mean regression is what ensures that over a large enough sample of bets you’ll make a profit.
For example, if the EV of one bet is £5.
Then if you place 10 of those bets you’d expect to be in profit by £50.
And whilst you’d have no way of knowing what the total profit or loss would be after just a few bets.
After 10 bets it would be more likely that you’d be in profit by £50.
Simply due to the fact that you’ve placed more bets and so ‘mean regression’ can take place.
4: Manage Your Risk
If you only have £100 to bet with – it wouldn’t be a good strategy to wager it all at once!
Regardless of the EV of the bet.
Before we get into the practical elements of this winning roulette strategy, it’s crucial that you first understand how to manage your bankroll to avoid going bust.
Here are the guidelines that I follow – as taught in Mike Cruickshank’s EV Maximiser service:
- If the chance of bust is less than 50% – risk no more than 3% of your total bankroll;
- If the chance of bust is between 50-70% – risk no more than 2% of your total bankroll;
- If the chance of bust is more than 70% – risk no more than 1% of your total bankroll.
In fact, if the chance of going bust is more than 80% – I’ll not risk more than 0.5% of my total bankroll.
Because I don’t like losing money. 🙂
I’ll explain how to calculate the ‘chance of bust’ in step 6.
5: Find an Offer
+EV roulette bonuses aren’t that easy to find these days.
Which is why I use the Profit Maximiser Daily Calendar to quickly identify the most profitable +EV offers.
Because it saves me from having to trawl through the bookmakers’ websites.
Pulling apart the Terms and Conditions of their bonuses trying to work out if there’s any value to be had:
6: Calculate the EV
When you click on ‘More Details’ you’re told the EV of the offer and the exact instructions you’ll need to follow to cash in.
However, for the sake of this example.
I’m going to show you how I work out the EV of a huge array of casino bonuses using the EV Maximiser Monte Carlo Simulator.
Here, William Hill are offering to refund my losses on European Roulette – up to £10 as a bonus:
The Terms and Conditions state that I must stake £10 over at least 10 game rounds.
The bonus has a 30x wagering requirement.
The strategy here is to keep placing £1 bets until I either double my balance (£20) or lose the full £10.
I’m going to place my bets on single numbers.
Paradoxically, this increases the volatility (the chance of going bust) and also the EV.
To work out the EV, I first calculate the value of the £10 refund using the EV Maximiser software:
And I use the EV of the bonus to work out the final EV when my £10 deposit is factored in:
I now run the simulator to calculate the final EV figure and the risk level:
The expected value for this offer is £6.44.
And the chance of losing my £10 deposit is 75.9%
7: Complete the Wagering
Because I’ve got more than a 70% chance of going bust.
I need to ensure that my £10 deposit does not exceed 1% of my total available bankroll for completing casino offers.
In this case, I’ll need a bankroll of at least £1,000 to make this offer viable.
Happy with the EV and the risk.
I now simply go ahead and place £1 bets on single numbers until I either double my deposit – or lose my £10.
If I lose my deposit I’ll get a £10 bonus back the next day.
I’ll then play through the bonus using £1 spins until I either complete the £300 of wagering requirements or bust out.
Then I’ll move on to the next +EV offer.
Conclusion: +EV Bonuses are the Key to Long-Term Profits
We’ve covered a lot of ground in this article.
I skimmed over a lot of the theory because it’s just too abstract for a lot of people to entertain in any depth.
For example, I didn’t explain why increasing the volatility can also increase the value of some (but not all) casino bonuses.
But even if you didn’t quite manage to grasp how EV and regression to the mean work together to yield a long-term profit over a large sample of +EV bets.
Image: A Profit Maximiser member wins £597,136.92 from a 20p spin whilst wagering through a +EV casino bonus.
You should still hopefully have come to realise that in order to make a long-term profit from online roulette – you need to be exploiting casino bonuses.
Because playing roulette with your own money is only ever going to benefit the online casinos.
Furthermore, it’s not enough to use any old casino bonus to beat the house edge.
You must work out the true EV of the casino bonus to ensure that every bet that you place is mathematically stacked in your favour.
This is the only way that you’ll ever ‘win’ at online roulette in the long-term.
How to Find More +EV Offers With Ease
Like I said before.
There’s no need for you to try and work out the EV of each casino bonus by yourself.
As a Profit Maximiser member, you’ll have instant access to both the calendar that houses all of the daily +EV offers.
And a huge array of preselected +EV casino welcome bonuses complete with instructions for making money:
This means that as soon as you’ve joined up.
You can start profiting from the online casinos’ +EV bonuses right away.
Click the button below to read my Profit Maximiser Review.
And I’ll explain how to get started.