Welcome to my comprehensive guide to advantage gambling with online casino bonuses.
Where I’ll be sharing with you the exact 5-step ‘casino bonus bagging’ strategy that’s allowed me to average a profit of more than £500 each month for the last 11 months.
Here’s what that looks like as a graph:
The orange line represents my casino-based advantage gambling profits.
Which currently stands at £5,837.60.
This guide will be useful if you’re a matched bettor who’s considering making the transition to the ‘casino’ element of matched betting.
Because there’s a deep misconception in the matched betting community that advantage betting is no different to regular ‘mug’ gambling.
What is Advantage Gambling?
Here’s the quick answer:
Advantage gambling means to bet only when the odds are mathematically in your favour.
Advantage gambling produces a PROFIT for YOU, the player, over a large sample of bets.
This contrasts with normal gambling.
Which only ever produces a profit for the casino.
Also, advantage gambling is NOT the same as cheating.
Other Names For Casino-Based Advantage Gambling
‘Advantage gambling’ can be used interchangeably with the following terms:
- Advantage play (‘AP’);
- Casino bonus bagging;
- Casino matched betting;
- Casino whoring;
- Gambling with an edge.
Why Does Advantage Gambling Make You Money?
The whole strategy hinges upon the use [‘abuse!’] of the online casinos’ bonuses and free spins offers.
Because under normal circumstances, ‘fixed odds’ games like slots, blackjack, and roulette come with an inbuilt ‘house edge’.
However, certain casino bonuses not only ‘absorb’ the effects of the house edge.
They can actually create bets with a ‘positive expected value’ (+EV).
Which ultimately leads to long-term profits for you because you’re continually extracting value from the casinos’ bonuses.
Hence the term ‘advantage’ gambling.
Allow me to explain.
What is the House Edge?
The house edge is what keeps the casinos in business.
By ensuring that you’re paid out LESS than what is fair on your winning bets.
Whilst your whole stake is retained by the casino when your bets lose.
This creates a mathematical imbalance relative to the probability of each outcome.
Why You’ll NEVER Beat the House Edge With Your OWN Money
Here’s an example.
There are 37 numbers available to bet on in a game of European Roulette.
As such, a fair payout structure would be 36:1 when betting on single numbers.
Because such a ratio would see you break even over a large sample of bets.
However, the actual payout is 35:1.
Meaning that you’re being short-changed by one unit on your winning bets.
The Odds Are Stacked Against You!
Therefore, it’s mathematically impossible to beat the house edge when betting on roulette with your OWN money.
Because you’ll never win enough to cover your losses on average – if you play for long enough.
Meaning that you’ll lose £2.70 for every £100 that you turn over on average.
(The ‘RTP‘ – ‘return to player‘ – is just the inverse of the house edge; 97.3% in the above example).
Positive Expected Value (+EV) is the Key to Long-Term Profits
I’ll try to keep this as simple as possible 🙂
‘Expected value’ basically tells you the true ‘worth’ of your bet.
Bets with your OWN money on fixed odds casino games have a ‘negative expected value’ (-EV).
Due to the presence of the house edge – as already discussed.
+EV Casino Bonuses
However, the situation can change when you factor in the value of certain casino bonuses.
Casino bonuses and winnings from it can typically be withdrawn when a certain amount of playthrough has been achieved.
For example, a £10 casino bonus with a 2x ‘wagering requirement’ stipulates that £20 worth of bets must be placed before the £10 bonus and any winnings from it can be withdrawn to your bank account.
And, if the wagering requirements for a casino bonus are low enough…
Then the casino bonus may have a ‘positive expected value’ (+EV).
Here’s how to find out for sure…
How to Work Out the EV of a Casino Bonus
The £10 bonus above would have an ‘EV’ (expected value) of £9.46 when wagered on European Roulette.
How do I know this?
Because the EV of a casino bonus can be calculated using the following formula:
EV = bonus – (wagering requirements x house edge)
The bonus is worth £10.
The associated wagering requirements is £20.
And the house edge on European Roulette is 2.7% (0.027 in decimal).
EV = £10 – (£20 x 0.027)
= £10 – 0.54
Only Ever Wager Through +EV Casino Bonuses
If the answer to the above formula is POSITIVE.
Then the bonus has value (+EV).
If the answer to the above formula is NEGATIVE.
Then the bonus nas NO value (-EV).
In fact, playing with -EV bonuses is just as bad as gambling with your own cash.
You should ONLY ever play through +EV bonuses if you want to make money.
What About ‘Luck’?
Based on the above EV formula, you’d EXPECT to walk away with a profit of £9.46 from the £10 bonus after placing £20 worth of bets.
But in reality?
You have no way of knowing the ACTUAL amount that you’ll end up with.
So, you could say that the short-term results are down to ‘luck’.
This is more formally known as the ‘variance’.
In the context of advantage gambling, variance describes the ‘random’ distribution of the individual results (profit/loss) around the average value (the EV).
Getting Paid – The Law of Large Numbers
If you flip a coin 1,000 times.
You’d intuitively expect heads to show up just as often as tails.
However, take any random sample of 10 flips.
And you could see 10 heads in a row, 10 tails in a row, or every variation in between.
This short-term randomness is the variance.
But what ensures that over enough flips, the results will even out to 50:50?
That would be the mathematical phenomenon known as The Law of Large Numbers (LLN).
In the context of advantage gambling, the LLN is what ensures that the cumulative EV will
Go ahead and take another look at my profit graph:
The blue line goes up steadily.
Because it represents the cumulative EV of all the +EV offers that I’ve completed so far (1,783).
But the orange line jumps around.
Because it cumulatively represents my ACTUAL profit and loss from each bonus completed (£5,837.60).
My cumulative EV currently stands at £6,459.68.
Which means that due to the effects of variance, I’m still ‘owed’ £622.03 in profits.
There’s no telling if this will come in one ‘big’ win – or via several smaller ‘wins’.
But notice how the blue and orange lines do intersect at various points?
That’s evidence of the LLN at work. 🙂
What About Managing Risk?
So far, I’ve only talked about casino bonuses in a vacuum.
Meaning that I’ve assumed that the bonus is the only ‘money’ being wagered.
Most casinos will stipulate that you must risk some of your own money to get the casino bonus.
Which means that you could well end up out of pocket.
That’s why you should NEVER risk more than 1-3% of your total bankroll per offer.
More on this later.
How is Advantage Gambling Any Different to Normal Gambling?
In the SHORT term:
Advantage gambling and regular gambling appear to be identical.
Due to the nature of variance.
But over the LONG term:
The two are polar opposites.
Because advantage gambling produces a profit due to the presence of the +EV bonuses.
Whereas regular gambling will leave you out of pocket due to the effects of the house edge on your own funds.
The Importance of +EV Bet Volume
Want to know why most ‘uninformed’ matched bettors think that advantage gambling is no different to regular gambling?
Because they’re drawing conclusions from a microscopic sample size.
The Law of Large Numbers won’t really start to take effect until you’ve completed at least 100 – 500 +EV offers.
Therefore, analysing the results after just 3 offers – as this person has done – is a waste of time:
Similarly, this individual has falsely concluded that ‘advantage play’ is the same as regular gambling because they don’t understand the relationship between variance, expected value, The Law of Large Numbers, and sample size:
I’ve made a profit of more than £5,800.
And given that this occurred over a sample size of 1,783 offers.
This is far too large of a dataset to attribute my profits to blind ‘luck’.
How Much Money Can Be Made With Advantage Gambling?
If you have a larger starting bankroll.
You can buy into the offers for a larger amount because risking 1-3% of your bankroll maps to a greater value.
Consequently, larger buy-ins can increase the cumulative EV.
And, assuming that you can put the required volume in.
This will more than likely lead to better results.
For example, I met someone on a matched betting forum who has made more than £300,000 from 12,000 +EV casino offers:
I think he said that it took him just over a year.
How to Make Money From Online Casinos in 5-Steps
I could delve much deeper into the mathematics of advantage gambling.
But I believe that I’ve covered enough to help you understand why this strategy works.
Here’s the 5-step plan that I used to make more than £5,800 from 1,783 +EV casino offers.
1: Build Your Bankroll With the Cashback Loophole
To be honest.
I only just found out about this strategy recently.
So, I could certainly have made even more money if I’d implemented it sooner.
If you sign up to some online casinos via cashback websites, there’s a loophole that allows you to guarantee a profit.
It doesn’t work for every single casino.
But because this strategy is basically ‘risk-free’ and requires a very small starting bankroll…
Going through the cashback websites is probably the most effective way to build up your profits early on.
Then check out Corkie’s Casino System.
Where Adam will explain everything step-by-step.
2: Exploit the No-Risk Deposit Bonuses
Have you completed the casino cashback offers?
Then your next step is to work your way through the ‘no-risk’ casino deposit bonuses and ‘free spins’ offers.
The EV of most of these offers isn’t great.
But you can hit some decent wins.
For example, I banked £75.08 from a 20 free spins offer whilst turning over the wagering requirements on £1 spins:
The exact strategy for each offer will vary depending on the terms and conditions of each bonus.
The most time efficient way to go about this is by using a matched betting platform.
Personally, I’ve found OddsMonkey to have the most extensive selection of these offers.
You can view them by going to the ‘New Account Offers – Casino & Games’ section in your members’ area:
3: Transition to the Low-Risk Casino Sign-Up Offers
This is where things start to get a bit riskier.
(But also, more profitable).
There are a plenty of online casinos that offer bonuses when you join up and play through some of your own money.
This is NOT risk free.
If you wager through your qualifying deposit amount using the SMALLEST stake amount (usually 20p), this will help to
Stick to risking no more than 3% of your total bankroll per low-risk casino offer to avoid going bust.
Given that many of the offers require a £10 – £20 deposit.
You’ll need a working bankroll of at least £330 – £660 for tackling these types of low-risk casino offers.
Again, the exact instructions for each offer will vary.
You can view them by going to ‘New Account Offers – Casino & Games’ > ‘Offers’ in your OddsMonkey membership area.
4: Profit From the Daily Casino Matched Betting Offers
The low-risk casino matched betting sign-up promotions offer good value.
But they’re only the beginning.
You see, there are many more of these types of offers available each day from several betting outfits.
Again, stick to the ‘minimum spin size’ and 3% bankroll management rules.
I use the OddsMonkey Daily Calendar to help me find such offers quickly:
5: Consider the High-Risk Casino Strategies
Do you remember this formula that I gave you for calculating the expected value of a casino bonus?
EV = bonus – (wagering requirements x house edge)
Well, the truth is that this is just the most basic formula for exploiting casino bonuses.
Where the assumption is that everyone can complete 100% of the wagering requirements without losing their deposit.
Now, I’ll not go into the maths because this guide’s already long enough.
But the bottom line is that the EV of certain casino bonuses can be increased significantly by upping the stake sizes and/or the volatility of the casino game being used for completing the wagering requirements.
As the EV goes up – so does the risk.
However, those who are making upwards of 4-figures each month from casino-based advantage gambling are typically using this style of ‘advanced casino matched betting’:
The variance associated with these ‘higher EV’ offers can be savage.
As such, I’d recommend risking no more than 1% of your bankroll on such offers.
(Or even 0.5%).
Which means that if you’re buying into a high-risk casino offer for just £10.
You’ll need a working bankroll of at least £1,000 – £2,000.
I wouldn’t recommend that anyone with less than 1 years experience with the lower-risk casino
However, if you feel that you’re ready.
The you’ll need a Profit Maximiser membership.
Because they’re the only matched betting service brave enough to cover these types of casino offers:
Conclusion: The 7 Secrets to Success With Advantage Gambling
I’ve covered a lot of ground in this article.
And to be fair, I held off on
But basically, if you want to make money from casino bonuses you’ll need to:
- Only wager through +EV casino bonuses;
- Refrain from gambling with your own money;
- Trust the maths;
- Complete at least 100 – 500 +EV casino offers;
- Risk no more than 1-3% of your bankroll per offer;
- Expect ‘rough’ patches that could last 100s of offers;
- Start with the minimal risk offers and scale up.
Advantage Gambling Isn’t For Everyone
It takes a certain mindset to be able to push through the losing runs without getting frustrated.
Or end up chasing your losses.
But if you’ve got the mental resilience to make casino matched betting work.
I highly recommend the following resources to help speed up your results:
- Cashback casino offers – Corkie’s Casino System;
- Risk-free and low-risk offers – OddsMonkey;
- High-risk offers – Profit Maximiser.
Show This Advantage Gambling Guide to Your Fellow Matched Bettors
And help them to understand why casino matched betting isn’t the same as regular gambling.
Hopefully, this will go some way to clearing up the ongoing confusion.
And help them understand how to REALLY make money from online casino bonuses!
Let me know if you have any questions in the comments section below.