Because the bookmakers intentionally skew their odds to ensure that they take in more money than they pay out over time.
And since there’s so much past data typically available on the major football markets.
Factoring in their advantage is a relatively easy job for the bookmakers.
This mathematical ‘edge’ is called the ‘overround’.
And the overround is the precise reason why you’ve never heard of a poor bookie.
3 Profitable Soccer Betting Strategies
The system can be beaten.
I know this because since 2012, I’ve been exploiting legal loopholes in the online betting world to consistently make money.
Of which betting on football has played a major role.
Below, I’ve listed my top three strategies for making money by betting on football.
All of which are able to either beat the bookmakers’ overrounds directly.
Or otherwise circumvent it.
Thus resulting in long-term profits.
1: Matched Betting
Matched betting is a tried and tested strategy for making money online.
The concept is quite simple.
You use a betting exchange like Betfair to bet against your bookmaker bets to make them ‘risk-free’.
This can be done using the pink squares on the Betfair Exchange:
For example, if I’d backed Chelsea to win with the bookmaker.
I could then use the Betfair Exchange to bet on Chelsea to not win.
This means that all potential outcomes have been covered.
Because Chelsea will either win or they won’t.
(The Betfair Exchange ‘lay bet’ also covers the ‘draw’).
And so, this process of ‘backing and laying’ means that you can bet on any selection ‘risk-free’.
And why would you do this?
1: Obtain the bookmakers’ free bets without risking your own money.
2: Extract a guaranteed profit from the free bet no matter what happens.
Here’s a quick example:
William Hill are offering to give me £30 in free bets when I join up and bet £10 of my own money:
Of course, I don’t fancy gambling my £10 and risking a loss.
Since there’s no guarantee that the free bets will win either.
The matched betting process solves both of these issues.
Because I can use the Betfair Exchange to ensure that my initial £10 isn’t lost.
And I can also use the Betfair Exchange to bet against my free bets.
Thus resulting in a profit no matter the outcome.
Because the free bets are not my own money.
And so they create a potential profit margin that can be exploited.
How do you know the amount to bet on the Betfair Exchange?
You use what’s called a matched betting calculator to handle all the calculations.
Here’s a matched betting calculator supplied by the matched betting service named OddsMonkey:
The interface above is telling me that if I place a £10 free bet with the bookmaker on a selection at odds of 3.
And then place a £6.56 ‘lay bet’ on the same selection on the Betfair Exchange.
I’ll make a profit of £6.22 no matter which bet wins or loses.
How much money can be made?
You can expect to make up to £1,000 by using matched betting to cash out all of the bookmakers’ initial welcome offers.
After that, you can potentially make up to £500 or more each month from matched betting.
Simply by exploiting the ‘ongoing’ promotions that are linked to the bookmaker accounts that you’ve already opened.
What’s the best way to get started with matched betting?
Join a matched betting service like OddsMonkey.
Because their training resources will make the learning process a LOT easier.
And save you a bunch of time.
Plus, their odds-matcher tools will help you find the best matched betting selections instantly.
Which will result in more money in less time for you.
Click the button below to discover more about OddsMonkey in my full review.
2: Betfair Trading
Betfair trading allows you to completely remove the bookmakers and
And instead, focus on taking money from other people placing bets on the Betfair Exchange.
This can be done on a wide range of sports – not just football.
How does Betfair trading work?
In a nutshell?
Betfair trading is a bit like the stock market.
You ‘buy’ or ‘sell’ at one price.
And then ‘green up’ when the price has moved in your
Betfair trading is a vast and complex subject that has many different strategies and techniques that can result in a profit.
For example, you could try to consistently identify value prices and let your bets ‘run’ for a long-term profit.
Or, you could look to use fundamental analysis to capture small price movements to steal a profit before the event goes in-play.
But one thing must remain constant:
Because without a mathematical advantage, you’re just gambling.
The Betfair markets are typically highly efficient.
This is because the ‘Wisdom of the Crowd’ phenomenon means that the aggregate of all the bets placed tends to map to the ‘fair’ price of that outcome happening.
This can make it incredibly difficult to make a consistent profit from Betfair trading.
And it gets worse…
I’ve reviewed a fair number of Betfair trading ‘systems’.
And most of them don’t work.
Because they attempt to apply a fixed set of parameters to a fluid and dynamic market.
Which rarely results in the manifestation of a true edge.
And some of the folks behind
Instead, they’re just looking to exploit your thirst for quick results.
Ultimately leaving you out of pocket and thoroughly disappointed.
Goal Profits is different.
Because they provide you with a 16-week training plan that’s designed to educate you in finding a true edge in the football markets.
Yes, they do give you ‘starter’ strategies to cut the learning curve.
But Goal Profits also have in-house statistical software that isn’t available anywhere else.
Which means that you’ve got a potential advantage over the other traders on Betfair.
Because you’ll be acting on little known information.
Click the button below to read my full Goal Profits review.
And see how Goal Profits could help you make money trading the football markets on Betfair.
3: Tipping Services
The bookmakers are generally pretty good at pricing up their selections.
But they don’t always get it right.
And so, if you can regularly identify what are called ‘value bets’.
You’ll make money.
Because your bets will win more often than what the odds reflect.
Take a coin flip for example.
A fair price is ‘evens’ (2.0).
Because half the time you’ll win one unit.
And lose one unit the other half of the time.
Thus resulting in a break-even proposition.
But if you could find a bookmaker willing to pay you more than evens on your winning bets, you’d have a value bet.
Because your winnings would exceed your losses over a large sample of bets due to The Law of Large Numbers.
Finding value bets is REALLY hard!
It takes a serious amount of legwork to be able to consistently identify value bets.
Especially in the major football markets.
Where the bookmakers are typically very efficient in modelling a fair price and then applying their edge.
There’s a potential solution….
Leverage a professional sports betting tipster.
In exchange for a monthly fee.
A professional sports betting tipster will provide you with value bets.
Most football betting tipsters are USELESS!
I’ve been using and reviewing sports betting tipsters for years.
And I’ve noticed that most will focus on odds-on favourites to pump up the strike rate to create the illusion of an edge.
But most won’t last until the end of the season.
As their lack of analytical skills is exposed through the resulting negative ROI.
But profitable football tipsters DO exist…
Take the Betting Gods for example.
At the time of writing.
This professional tipster management service currently has four soccer tipsters that are currently producing profits:
Image credit: The Betting Gods.
Having previously used and reviewed their Chloe’s Football Focus service.
My analysis of this tipster’s betting record suggests that this system has a legitimate edge over the odds.
Because at the time of writing, the current average odds of 3.75 maps to an implied win rate of 26.7%.
Yet the system is winning 38.48% of the bets issued.
Thus meeting the definition of value betting.
(As previously illustrated with the coin flip example).
Click the button below to read my full Chloe’s Football Focus review.
To find out if this tipster is right for your style of football betting.